### The Prospects of the International Space Station: Charting a Course Through Turbulence and Global Strains
The International Space Station (ISS) has for years represented a hallmark of global collaboration, especially between the United States and Russia. Nevertheless, recent geopolitical friction, notably following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has overshadowed the future of this joint space initiative. In spite of these hurdles, the ISS continues its operations, with both NASA and Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, adhering to their obligations to the station—at least for the time being.
#### A Chaotic Phase for the ISS Alliance
Just over two years ago, the outlook for the ISS became uncertain when Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Roscosmos, made divisive remarks hinting that Russia might withdraw from the space station due to Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine situation. Rogozin, recognized for his dramatic social media antics, frequently used the ISS to negotiate, issuing ambiguous threats about Russia’s potential exit from the program. However, in July 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed Rogozin and appointed Yuri Borisov, a former deputy prime minister, indicating a change in strategy.
Although the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to strain relations between Russia and Western nations, the ISS has remained one of the few domains where collaboration endures. In 2022, Russia officially prolonged its engagement with the ISS until 2028, while NASA and additional space agencies, including those from Europe, Japan, and Canada, have committed to keeping the station functioning until 2030.
#### The 2028-2030 Gap: A Point of Anxiety
The two-year discrepancy between Russia’s commitment (ending in 2028) and the plans of other ISS partners (extending to 2030) raises concerns among NASA officials. This unpredictability has led NASA to adopt precautionary steps. In June 2024, NASA awarded SpaceX a contract to design a deorbit vehicle based on the Dragon spacecraft. This vehicle would guide the ISS, which weighs in excess of 450 tons, toward a controlled reentry over a remote oceanic area when its operational period concludes.
Robyn Gatens, the director of the ISS program at NASA Headquarters, recognized the ambiguity during a recent session of NASA’s advisory council. “We do face that uncertainty, from 2028 to 2030, with Roscosmos,” she stated. “We anticipate updates from them in the coming year or two regarding their future plans, hoping that those will also extend to 2030.”
#### Russia’s Space Program: A Vital Dependence on the ISS
Russia’s choice to extend its involvement in the ISS through 2028 was strategic. The Russian space program relies heavily on the ISS for its human spaceflight endeavors. Should Russia depart from the program in 2028, it would encounter vast challenges. The nation currently lacks its own space station in low-Earth orbit, and the likelihood of developing one within four years is minimal. Without the ISS, Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft, which currently transports astronauts to and from the station, would lack a destination.
While Russia has been strengthening ties with China in space exploration, China’s Tiangong space station is not reachable from Russia’s launch facilities, complicating Russia’s options further. This places Roscosmos in a vulnerable position, with its future in human spaceflight intricately linked to the ISS.
#### The Interconnectedness of the US and Russian Components
The ISS represents an incredible feat of international engineering, with various parts of the station operated by different nations. The US and Russian sections of the ISS are notably interlinked. The US segment produces the majority of the station’s power and manages its orientation without consuming rocket fuel. Conversely, Russia maintains the station’s altitude and navigates it to evade space debris. Although Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus cargo vessel has shown it can boost the station’s orbit, Russia’s contribution remains essential.
Should Russia opt to exit the ISS program prematurely, it would pose significant operational challenges for both NASA and its international collaborators. As Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator for space operations, remarked, “Much hinges on what happens after the Russian team decides they won’t continue past 2028. Is that a definitive cutoff, where they shut everything down and stop providing any propulsion? Or could they still offer propulsion, requiring us to provide some alternative support?”
#### The Final Chapter for the ISS: Preparation for Deorbit
Assuming the ISS functions as anticipated until 2030, NASA is already strategizing for its eventual deorbit. The final deorbit maneuver could occur in early 2031, with NASA targeting to have the deorbit vehicle ready for deployment by 2029. This will facilitate a controlled reentry for the station, ensuring it
