# The Intelligence Era: Sam Altman’s Perspective on a Future Fueled by AI
On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman presented his outlook for the future in a personal blog entry titled “[The Intelligence Era](https://ia.samaltman.com/).” In this piece, Altman envisions a world where artificial intelligence (AI) assumes a pivotal role in propelling human advancement and global wealth. He anticipates that superintelligent AI may surface within the next decade, a breakthrough that could transform society in ways we can hardly conceive today.
## The Pathway to Superintelligence
Altman’s article proposes that superintelligent AI—machines that exceed human intelligence across nearly all fields—might be realized in “a few thousand days.” Although the specific timeline remains nebulous, Altman is assured that this tier of AI will eventually be attained. As a point of reference, 2,000 days equates to roughly 5.5 years, while 4,000 days is about 11 years, placing his forecast within the next decade.
OpenAI’s current mission is to create **Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)**, an AI type capable of handling a broad range of tasks at a human level without requiring specialized training. Superintelligence, or **Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)**, would extend beyond AGI, excelling beyond humans in all cognitive pursuits, possibly facilitating breakthroughs in domains such as science, medicine, and technology.
While Altman’s timeline is speculative, his role as CEO of OpenAI—one of the foremost AI research entities—adds credibility to his forecasts. OpenAI has been a leader in AI innovations, and Altman likely has access to advanced research that is yet to be released. Nonetheless, his optimism is not universally embraced. Detractors like computer scientist Grady Booch have voiced skepticism, contending that much of the AI enthusiasm is overstated and aimed at inflating valuations and capturing media attention.
## The Rise of “The Intelligence Era”
In his essay, Altman characterizes the current age as the onset of what he dubs “The Intelligence Era,” a pivotal time in human development reminiscent of the Stone Age, Agricultural Age, and Industrial Age. He attributes the triumph of **deep learning algorithms** as the primary driver of this new epoch, stating succinctly, “How did we arrive at the threshold of the next leap in prosperity? In three words: deep learning succeeded.”
Altman foresees a future where AI assistants grow increasingly proficient, ultimately creating “personal AI teams” that can aid individuals in accomplishing nearly anything they envision. These AI systems could revolutionize sectors such as education, healthcare, and software development, unlocking breakthroughs once deemed unattainable.
For instance, in education, AI could offer customized learning experiences tailored to each student’s requirements, potentially bridging achievement gaps. In healthcare, AI might support doctors in identifying ailments, formulating treatment strategies, and even unearthing new medications. In software development, AI could streamline much of the coding work, freeing developers to concentrate on higher-level problem resolution.
## The Obstacles and Threats of AI
While Altman is hopeful regarding AI’s capacity to enhance lives, he admits that the transition to the Intelligence Era will encounter hurdles. One of the most pressing issues is the possibility of labor market upheaval. As AI systems grow in capability, many positions could be automated, resulting in widespread job displacement. However, Altman contends that this is not a novel issue, drawing a comparison to the lamplighters of yesteryear who lost their livelihoods with the introduction of electric streetlights. He believes that, similar to past technological adaptations, society will navigate the changes introduced by AI.
“Many of the jobs we perform today would have seemed like trivial wastes of time to individuals a few hundred years ago, but no one is looking back at history, yearning to be a lamplighter,” Altman asserts. “If a lamplighter could observe the present-day world, he would consider the surrounding prosperity unimaginable.”
Nevertheless, Altman’s essay does not deeply explore some of the more existential threats related to AI, such as the risk of AI systems behaving in ways detrimental to humanity. This absence has not gone unnoticed. Bloomberg columnist Matthew Yglesias highlighted that Altman seems to have shifted his focus away from existential risks, emphasizing instead more immediate matters like labor market adjustments.
In spite of this, Altman does advocate for caution, albeit somewhat ambiguously. “We need to proceed judiciously yet resolutely,” he writes. “The dawn of the Intelligence Era is a significant development with intricate and extremely high-stakes challenges. It will not be wholly positive, but the potential benefits are so immense that we owe it to ourselves—and future generations—to learn how to manage the risks ahead.”
## The Infrastructure Challenge
One of the principal challenges Altman emphasizes is the necessity for extensive infrastructure to accommodate the widespread deployment of AI. He argues that for AI to be
