### Investigating the Science Behind Fiction: George R.R. Martin and the Physics of the *Wild Cards* Universe
While devotees of *A Song of Ice and Fire* eagerly anticipate the next chapter in George R.R. Martin’s grand fantasy narrative, the renowned writer has ventured into a completely different domain—science. Martin has recently co-authored a peer-reviewed physics paper in the *American Journal of Physics*, which examines the theoretical foundations of the fictional virus central to his *Wild Cards* series. This partnership with physicist Ian Tregillis presents an intriguing illustration of how science and narrative can converge to form an engaging educational resource.
### The Development of *Wild Cards*
The *Wild Cards* series, a communal universe anthology overseen by Martin and Melinda M. Snodgrass, emerged from an enduring *Superworld* tabletop role-playing game campaign during the 1980s. Martin, serving as the game’s master, crafted a fictional setting with a unified explanation for the advent of superpowers. Snodgrass suggested the virus concept, leading to the inception of the *Wild Cards* universe.
Situated within an alternate historical context of post-World War II America, the series is centered around the release of an alien-engineered virus in New York City in 1946. Dubbed the Wild Card virus, it alters human DNA with unpredictable effects. The virus proves fatal to 90% of its hosts, while 9% are transformed into “Jokers,” individuals exhibiting grotesque physical deformities. A fortunate 1% develop superhuman abilities, known as “Aces.” Some Aces possess minor or ineffective powers, earning the designation “Deuces.”
Over the years, the *Wild Cards* universe has grown to encompass numerous novels and short stories, featuring contributions from 44 authors. The series has ignited debates among fans and scientists regarding the feasibility of its central conceit.
### A Physicist’s Interest
Ian Tregillis, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and a fan of the saga, recognized an opportunity to examine the Wild Card virus through a scientific framework. Captivated by the series’ established “90:9:1 rule” regarding the virus’s impacts, Tregillis endeavored to formulate a mathematical model to illustrate its behavior. What began as a simple thought experiment blossomed into a comprehensive academic paper, co-authored with Martin.
“As a theoretician, I found myself contemplating whether a straightforward underlying model could clarify the canon,” Tregillis remarked. The aim was not to scientifically validate the reality of superpowers—an inherently mythical concept—but to leverage the fictional virus as a framework for imparting advanced physics principles.
### The Science Behind the Wild Card Virus
The primary challenge of the paper was to align the *Wild Cards* universe’s strict categorization of Jokers and Aces with characters who navigate these classifications, such as “Joker-Aces” (individuals showcasing both mutations and superpowers). The authors also introduced the term “cryptos”—individuals with mutations or abilities that go unnoticed.
To tackle these intricacies, Tregillis and Martin put forth a mathematical model founded on three essential premises:
1. **Cryptos Are Real**: Some individuals impacted by the virus might have mutations or abilities that are imperceptible.
2. **The 90:9:1 Rule Applies to Observable Instances**: The established distribution of outcomes pertains solely to observable transformations.
3. **Multivariate Probability Distribution**: The virus’s outcomes are determined by a multivariate probability distribution, accommodating the intensity of transformation and the blending of Joker and Ace characteristics.
Employing a Lagrangian framework, a mathematical approach frequently utilized in physics to articulate system dynamics, the model translates the effects of the virus into a dynamic system. This allowed the authors to derive a formula capable of generating the statistical distribution of outcomes.
### Consequences for Physics Instruction
Though grounded in a fictional realm, the paper’s implications extend to real-world educational contexts. Tregillis and Martin contend that the *Wild Cards* virus serves as an engaging means to introduce learners to advanced physics concepts, including probability distributions and dynamic systems. They advise, however, that this exercise is most effective in senior honors seminars or advanced classes, as it entails multiple steps and necessitates a solid grasp of physics.
“The time-averaged behavior of this system produces the statistical distribution of outcomes,” Tregillis elucidated. This method not only highlights the adaptability of physics concepts but also inspires students to approach research questions creatively and tackle unresolved inquiries.
### Connecting Science and Narrative
The partnership between Martin and Tregillis emphasizes the potential for science and storytelling to mutually enhance their respective fields. By applying rigorous scientific techniques to a fictional basis, the authors have forged a distinctive educational resource that serves to bridge the divide between
