# **Asteroid 2024 YR4: Evaluating the Threat and Mitigation Plans**
## **Introduction**
At the close of 2024, astronomers identified a newly discovered asteroid, named **2024 YR4**, which might have the potential to affect Earth in the future. This finding came courtesy of the **Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS)**, a NASA-backed initiative aimed at detecting near-Earth objects (NEOs) that may pose risks to our planet.
Initial assessments indicate a **minor chance of impact on December 22, 2032**, though ongoing observations are expected to clarify the asteroid’s path, likely discounting any potential collision. Nonetheless, this discovery has ignited conversations surrounding planetary defense measures and the necessity of continuous asteroid surveillance.
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## **Discovery and Preliminary Evaluation**
On **December 27, 2024**, a telescope situated in Chile spotted a dim point of light that did not match any recognized celestial body. Subsequent investigations confirmed this as a hitherto unidentified asteroid, now referred to as **2024 YR4**.
Researchers swiftly concluded that the asteroid will make a close approach to Earth in **2028 and again in 2032**. While the 2028 encounter poses no danger, there is a **small likelihood of impact in 2032**.
### **Current Risk Assessment**
As of early 2025:
– **NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS)** predicts a **1.9% chance** of impact.
– **The European Space Agency (ESA)** assesses a **1.8% probability**.
– This reflects approximately a **1-in-53 chance** of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth.
These probabilities are slightly elevated from earlier estimates but are anticipated to **diminish to zero** as additional information becomes available.
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## **Evaluating the Risk**
### **Dimensions and Potential Consequences**
2024 YR4 is approximated to be **between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) in diameter**. Although it is not sizable enough to trigger global disaster, an asteroid of this magnitude could inflict **considerable localized destruction**.
To illustrate:
– The **Tunguska event (1908)**, which devastated 500 square miles of Siberian forest, was likely the result of an asteroid of comparable size.
– The **Chelyabinsk meteor (2013)**, which burst in the atmosphere above Russia, measured only **20 meters in diameter** but still resulted in injuries and property damage.
Should 2024 YR4 collide with Earth, it could generate **blast damage extending up to 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the point of impact**.
### **Torino Scale Classification**
The **Torino Scale** is utilized to evaluate asteroid collision risks. 2024 YR4 has been assigned a **Level 3 classification**, indicating it requires **close monitoring from astronomers, the public, and government entities**.
This marks just the **second occasion** an asteroid has reached this threshold since the scale’s inception in 1999. The first was **Apophis in 2004**, which was subsequently deemed safe.
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## **Clarifying the Asteroid’s Path**
### **Difficulties in Monitoring 2024 YR4**
Establishing the precise trajectory of the asteroid is challenging because:
– It is currently **moving away from Earth in a nearly linear path**, complicating the tracking of its curvature.
– It will **fade from visibility by April 2025**, limiting the observation period.
By the conclusion of this observation phase, the impact probability could:
– **Rise to several tens of percent** (unlikely).
– **Fall below 1%**, expelling it from ESA’s risk assessment (more likely).
If the asteroid continues to be a concern, it will be observable again in **2028**, but waiting until then could provide insufficient time for a deflection initiative.
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## **Planetary Defense Approaches**
### **Global Coordination**
The **Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)**, comprising members from NASA, ESA, China, and Russia, convened in early 2025 to deliberate on potential actions. They agreed to:
– Wait for a few months to gather more observations before proceeding.
– Reconvene in **April or May 2025** to evaluate the risk again.
– If the impact chance persists above **1%**, they will present recommendations to the **United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs**.
### **Deflection Strategies**
Should 2024 YR4 continue to pose a risk, space agencies may explore a **deflection mission**. One viable option is the **kinetic impactor technique**, which was illustrated by NASA’s **DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022**.
DART successfully modified the trajectory of an asteroid by colliding a spacecraft with it. A similar initiative could be initiated to **shift 2024 YR4**.
