### 2025 Smartphone Market Forecast: Expansion Despite Obstacles
Describing 2025 as a volatile year for the smartphone sector would not capture the full essence. In early February, IDC had projected a 2.6% increase, which later adjusted to a mere 0.6% in May. Recently, the organization has revised its projections again, attributing part of this to notable “accelerated” growth in iOS. Below are the specifics.
#### Tariff Ambiguity Merely ‘Background Noise’ Now
When IDC revised its global smartphone market predictions for 2025 from 2.6% down to 0.6% in late May, it pointed to “high uncertainty, tariff fluctuations, and macroeconomic issues such as inflation and unemployment in various regions causing a dip in consumer expenditure.”
Currently, the latest report presents a somewhat more optimistic projection: the organization anticipates that the market will conclude 2025 with 1% growth, fueled by “accelerated 3.9% iOS growth.” They assert that, in spite of earlier challenges this year, there exists a “robust replacement demand” that “will facilitate growth into 2026.”
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, remarked, “Although tariff fluctuations continue to introduce significant uncertainty, at this moment it is merely background noise for the majority of smartphone manufacturers. OEMs need to advance their diversification and production strategies to guarantee sufficient shipments to meet demand, which remains solid in most markets within select segments.”
Popal also indicated that the U.S. market will experience a growth of 3.6% through 2025, the Middle East and Africa will see a growth of 6.5%, and Asia Pacific, excluding China, is expected to grow by 0.8%, while China is predicted to encounter a 1% decline.
#### GenAI and Foldables to Expand Reach
The report additionally indicates a steady yet optimistic perspective extending to 2029, propelled by rising enthusiasm for foldable smartphones and the evolution and adoption of on-device generative AI capabilities.
Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, commented, “IDC anticipates that over 370 million GenAI smartphones will be shipped globally in 2025, capturing a 30% market share. As use cases broaden and consumer awareness increases, we foresee on-device GenAI capabilities becoming integrated into more mid-range devices, evolving into a standard must-have feature sooner rather than later—elevating GenAI’s market share to over 70% by 2029.”
Notably, the report does not highlight Apple as a likely catalyst for growth within the foldable smartphone segment, despite speculation regarding a potential release of Apple’s first foldable iPhone next year.
For this segment, IDC predicts a 6% growth year-over-year in 2025, increasing from 2% in 2024, “followed by another 6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027.”
### Conclusion
The smartphone sector in 2025 is maneuvering through numerous challenges, yet indications of growth are emerging courtesy of iOS innovations and breakthrough technologies such as generative AI and foldable devices. As producers adapt to evolving market demands and consumer preferences shift, the mobile technology landscape is on the brink of substantial transformations in the forthcoming years.
