According to a recent analysis by Counterpoint Research, the triumph of the iPhone 17 series is anticipated to elevate Apple above Samsung as the leading smartphone manufacturer globally. Here are the specifics.
### Apple Expected to Achieve 10% YoY Growth in iPhone Sales by 2025
Earlier this month, Counterpoint Research released two analytical reports indicating that Apple is outpacing other players in the smartphone market, largely due to the iPhone 17 series.
The initial report revealed that during the first month of iPhone 17’s availability, Apple’s sales increased by 22%, whilst the wider market experienced a decline of 2.7% in the same timeframe.
In the subsequent report, Counterpoint asserted that Apple experienced a 37% year-over-year rise in iPhone sales in October, in contrast to an 8% increase for the market as a whole.
Now, a new Counterpoint intelligence report (via Bloomberg) indicates that while Samsung is predicted to conclude 2025 with a 4.6% rise in phone sales, Apple is estimated to achieve a 10% year-over-year growth. This will suffice to propel the company back to the forefront as the premier smartphone manufacturer with a 19.4% market share.
Commenting on the figures, Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang stated:
> “In addition to the remarkably positive reception for the iPhone 17 series, the principal factor behind the improved shipment forecast is the replacement cycle reaching a critical juncture. (…) Consumers who acquired smartphones during the Covid-19 surge are now entering their upgrade phase. Additionally, 358 million pre-owned iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also poised to upgrade to a new iPhone in the upcoming years.”
The analysis also suggests that the wider smartphone market will experience a more moderate growth rate of 3.3%, and it forecasts that Apple will retain its status as the world’s top smartphone vendor at least until 2029, bolstered in part by the expected release of a foldable iPhone and the iPhone 17e.
This report follows Apple’s own projections that this holiday quarter will be the company’s most significant ever. During its previous earnings call, CEO Tim Cook consistently emphasized the iPhone 17 lineup’s robust initial performance, despite a generally reported lukewarm response to the iPhone Air model, in particular.
