Apple’s iPhone 18 introduction is shaping up to be quite a significant departure from the company’s usual strategy. A recent IDC report has confirmed that the smallest flagship iPhone collection since 2019 may be on the way. Here are the specifics.
### Anticipated smaller iPhone 18 lineup next fall by IDC and others
Today, IDC released its smartphone sales predictions for 2025, featuring a glimpse of what 2026 might hold.
Overall, it’s a positive report for Apple, highlighting robust iPhone 17 sales that are driving a Year-over-Year growth of 6.1%.
However, for the next year, IDC forecasts a 4.2% decrease in iPhone sales.
What’s behind the “negative” outlook? It stems from Apple’s anticipated shift in its iPhone 18 launch strategy.
According to the report:
> While the near-term outlook for smartphones has improved, growth for 2026 has been downgraded from 1.2% growth to a 0.9% decline, influenced by a mix of component shortages and adjustments in the product cycle. Apple’s planned transition of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is projected to reduce iOS shipments by 4.2% next year.
For over six months, we’ve been hearing that Apple intends to move the base iPhone 18 out of the flagship fall offering. It is set to debut in early 2027, in conjunction with the iPhone 18e.
Nevertheless, until recently, it was anticipated that there would still be four new iPhones introduced next fall: iPhone Air 2, iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone Fold.
However, when information surfaced that the development of the Air 2 was progressing slower than anticipated, speculation suggested that Apple might actually advance the iPhone 18 into the fall lineup.
Yet, no leaks have surfaced supporting that notion, and IDC’s report seems to further validate that there will be no alterations.
This implies that the iPhone 18 lineup next fall could be the smallest since 2019.
### The last time Apple released only three flagship iPhones was in 2019
In 2019, Apple launched three flagship iPhones: the iPhone 11, 11 Pro, and 11 Pro Max.
Since then, four iPhones have been introduced each fall. Typically, this has included two Pro models along with two ‘standard’ versions, comprising the base model and either a smaller ‘mini’ or larger ‘Plus.’
This year, the iPhone Air replaced the Plus model—but four models still persisted.
Now, expectations suggest that only three flagship iPhones for 2026 are forthcoming:
– iPhone 18 Pro
– iPhone 18 Pro Max
– iPhone Fold/Ultra
Eliminating the base model clarifies why IDC anticipates an overall drop in iPhone shipments for next year. This is also why they foresee a resurgence in growth in 2027, coinciding with the launches of the base iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2.
What will be the market’s reaction to just three, premium-priced new iPhones next fall? It’s difficult to determine. Perhaps a greater number of users will choose the Pro models compared to usual, while others may lean towards the highly-priced foldable. IDC does predict an overall revenue increase in 2026 despite declining shipments.
Regardless, after years of relative stagnation in its offerings, Apple appears more than willing to embrace risks with the iPhone nowadays.
