Rivian aims to rapidly launch its R2 SUV in the U.S., according to company statements and TechCrunch’s analysis of sales data. CEO RJ Scaringe calls the R2 “perhaps the most significant launch to date.” Its success is crucial for Rivian’s future and profitability. Failure to ramp up production and sales might deter investors and raise concerns about the company’s current strategy of high expenditures for future scalability.
Rivian informed investors it plans to sell 20,000 to 25,000 R2s this year, with sales starting in June after production begins. Even on the lower end, this would surpass the sales pace of electric vehicles priced at or under $60,000, except for the Tesla Model Y. The Model Y hit 20,000 sold in four months in 2020; Rivian plans to reach that figure in about six months, similar to the Honda Prologue in 2024.
The Chevy Equinox EV took eight months to hit 20,000 sales in its 2024 launch, while the Ford Mustang Mach-E did so in 2021. Korean EVs like Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 needed 10 and 11 months, respectively. Tesla’s Model 3 and Chevy Blazer EV faced longer timelines due to production issues.
Rivian is launching the R2 without the advantage of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, removed by Congress and President Trump last year. Declining emissions regulations also impact automakers, causing cancellations or scale-backs of EV plans. Trump’s tariffs have increased vehicle costs, affecting Rivian’s lineup.
Scaringe positions these challenges as opportunities in a market lacking choice, especially in affordability. Rivian plans the R2 to start at $45,000. However, it will launch with a costlier dual-motor variant. Rivian later removed the “Starting at $45,000” claim from its website but remains committed to it.
Despite the current U.S. EV market struggles, demand for SUVs like Volvo’s EX60, BMW’s iX3, and Mercedes-Benz GLC seems strong, potentially giving R2 a competitive edge as they won’t arrive stateside soon, notes Edmunds analyst Joseph Yoon. Yoon acknowledges Rivian’s streamlined manufacturing approach as advantageous.
However, some analysts remain cautious. DA Davidson’s Michael Shlisky recently lowered Rivian’s price target citing R2’s “aggressive” launch schedule. Barclays’ Dan Levy predicts R2’s transaction price may stay around $60,000 until Rivian expands production abilities, with a new Georgia facility in the pipeline.