Glen Anderson has been arranging trades in private company shares since 2010, when institutional investors interested in the late-stage private market were scarce. Now, he notes, there are thousands.
As the president of Rainmaker Securities, a bank that focuses on private securities markets and deals in around 1,000 stocks, Anderson is witnessing a significant moment in the secondary market’s history. Currently, he identifies Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as the main players in the narrative.
The situation, however, is more complex than it appears in headlines.
Anderson’s perspective on Anthropic is similar to a recent Bloomberg report: demand for its shares is extremely high. Bloomberg cited Ken Smythe, CEO of Next Round Capital, who said buyers indicated readiness to invest $2 billion into Anthropic, while $600 million in OpenAI shares remain without buyers.
Anderson observes the same at Rainmaker, stating, “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” from his Miami home. He highlights a major factor for Anthropic’s demand surge was their public clash with the Department of Defense, initially seeming negative but becoming beneficial.
He explained, “The app’s popularity grew, and people admired the company as a hero against big government. It amplified the story and distinguished it from OpenAI.”
This distinction matters to investors in a market traditionally favoring diverse investments. Anderson notes that many institutional investors still seek exposure to both Anthropic and OpenAI. While uncertain which AI model will prevail, the secondary market momentum favors Anthropic.
OpenAI has not disappeared. Anderson resists a black-and-white view of the situation.
“It’s not about choosing one over the other,” he said.
However, the excitement is lacking for OpenAI. “It isn’t as vibrant a market as Anthropic right now,” he admitted.
Regarding valuation, Anderson largely confirmed Bloomberg’s report that OpenAI’s secondary market shares trade as if valued at $765 billion, a discount from their latest $852 billion primary-round valuation. He noted this from memory, aligning with Bloomberg’s range.
OpenAI is trying to control secondary trading. “People should be cautious of firms claiming access to OpenAI equity through an SPV,” asserted an OpenAI spokesperson, mentioning no-fee authorized bank channels to counter high-fee brokers.
Notably, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs offer OpenAI shares to high-net-worth clients fee-free, Bloomberg said, while Goldman charges its usual carry of 15% to 20% for Anthropic exposure.
This excludes SpaceX, distinct among fluctuating sentiment toward other brands. Anderson describes it as a consistently successful company during private market corrections from 2022 to 2024, where many private firms’ shares dropped 60% to 70% from their peaks.
SpaceX, a leader in the rocket and satellite industry, “has been mostly moving upward,” Anderson noted.
Anderson, with economic interests in the company, credits SpaceX’s management for careful pricing, avoiding maximum stock price rounds.
“Many companies aim for high stock prices every round,” he said. “But that leaves no room for error.”
SpaceX, instead, avoided greed, rewarding earlier investors richly. “Investors from 2015 have seen enormous gains,” Anderson stated.
To elaborate: In 2015, Google and Fidelity’s $1 billion investment valued SpaceX at $12 billion. Now, those investors enjoy over 100x gains, with the company valued at over $1 trillion before its planned IPO.
That IPO appears imminent. SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO this week, preparing for a major market debut, with Elon Musk reportedly aiming to raise $50 billion to $75 billion, possibly by June. Only Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut, valued at $1.7 trillion, rivals it.
The rumored filing has already changed dynamics for secondary SpaceX shares, Anderson noted.
“SpaceX investors are actively approaching me, asking for shares,” he said. “It’s an active buy side.” But supply is dwindling. As a company nears its IPO, existing shareholders have less incentive to sell with a liquidity event approaching.
This complicates matters for