Alan Cole, observing fervent support from Elon Musk fans on the prediction market Kalshi for the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to significantly cut federal spending within a year, decided to place a bet himself, as detailed in the Wall Street Journal. An international tax accountant, Cole was confident that federal spending couldn’t be drastically curtailed. Even if DOGE canceled some contracts and reduced workforce, many financial commitments and a rising federal debt would persist. Confident in this belief, he bet his life savings—over $342,000—that the U.S. federal budget wouldn’t shrink rapidly. Cole acquired 3% of a Kalshi market that ballooned to $12 million, making some hedging bets in the process. When the government issued the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing an increase from 2024, Cole earned $470,300, netting a $128,000 profit.
Accountant Hits Major Jackpot on Kalshi by Betting Against DOGE
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