What is the value of improving your chance of success or minimizing the risk of a costly failure? Historically, we’ve relied on averages—simple but often misleading. This is changing with new tools, known as ChanceOmeters, that measure uncertainty, providing the odds rather than a single number. Powered by AI and a new type of data, these tools make thousands of calculations to offer better insights.
This change influences decision-making: real-time chances engage both intuition and analysis, a concept we term Limbic Analytics. Consider a marketing decision involving three customer segments. Traditionally, you’d choose based on expected revenue. But when aiming to surpass $100,000 in sales, accounting for uncertainty may lead you to a better choice through diversification.
In software development, if a product launch involves four parallel approval processes, each expected to take six weeks, the average timeline is misleading. Delays can occur, and the chance of meeting the six-week target is only about 6%. A ChanceOmeter helps test deadlines and examine the probability of success, shifting the focus from optimism to risk acceptance.
Uncertainty isn’t just to be feared—it can create value. Organizations’ budgeting processes often result in unused contingency funds, which, when pooled, create “money for nothing.” You can’t add uncertainties like dollars, but methods developed on Wall Street in the 1980s allow modeling of numerous possible futures.
In 2013, we co-founded a nonprofit with Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz to extend these capabilities beyond finance. Our mission was to develop data standards for easy storage and calculation of uncertainty. This has empowered non-specialists to handle uncertainty using familiar tools.
These interactive apps carry their own uncertainty data, and when combined with AI, they offer a potent way to anticipate future outcomes. As we’ve seen in marketing, software, and budgets, averages often hide risks and opportunities, while probabilities reveal them. By measuring and managing your chances, you can improve them.