TrendForce has adjusted its 2026 notebook shipment prediction downward, with Apple being the notable exception. Here are the specifics.
### Declining demand, increasing costs, and supply chain restructuring to significantly impact 2026
TrendForce has modified its forecast for the global notebook market in 2026, decreasing its shipment prediction from its earlier assessment:
> According to TrendForce’s most recent research on the notebook sector, global notebook shipments are displaying distinct signs of further decline. As a result, TrendForce has adjusted its 2026 full-year shipment forecast downward from -9.2% to -14.8% YoY, amid expectations of weakening end-market demand and rising supply chain expenses, indicating a more profound industry correction.
Two primary elements prompted the downward adjustment. Firstly, TrendForce points to “macroeconomic challenges” for a less robust recovery in the consumer market than anticipated. Secondly, it mentions that increasing component costs, partly stemming from “the swift growth of computing demand for AI,” will exert additional pressure on pricing throughout the industry.
> As critical component expenses continue to rise, notebook manufacturers are slowly transferring these increases to end-market prices to maintain margins.
TrendForce forecasts that prices will persist in their upward trend in the upcoming quarters, which will, in turn, make consumers more cautious and hesitant to acquire new products.
Regarding Apple, TrendForce reiterated that the company is in a better position to navigate these challenges due to its diminished dependency on external suppliers, combined with long-term partnerships and supply agreements:
> Apple has recently launched a more affordable model, the MacBook Neo. The main factors behind this decision include its proprietary Apple Silicon chips, which lessen reliance on outside CPU suppliers and offer greater flexibility in capacity management and cost discussions. Moreover, Apple’s highly standardized product specifications, streamlined model range, and focused memory capacities and configurations allow it to scale procurement volumes and enhance long-term contract negotiations.
Consequently, TrendForce anticipates that Apple will surpass the overall market performance, with shipments increasing by 7.7% year over year in 2026.
To access TrendForce’s complete report, follow this link.