**Counterpoint Research Lowers Smartphone Growth Projection Due to US Tariff Ambiguity**
Counterpoint Research has notably adjusted its smartphone growth estimates for 2025, reducing its forecast from a previously projected 4.2% to merely 1.9%. This change is primarily linked to the predicted consequences of US tariffs and persistent difficulties in the Chinese market. The organization now anticipates a decrease in year-over-year sales for both iPhones and Samsung smartphones in the US, mainly because of expected price hikes stemming from these tariffs.
Initially, Counterpoint had foreseen a strong global growth path for the smartphone sector. However, the interplay of tariff pressures and a tepid reaction to government subsidy initiatives in China has led to a reevaluation of these projections. While growth is still expected in most regions, declines are anticipated in North America and China. North America is especially susceptible to the expected price increases, while China’s growth forecast has been downgraded to nearly flat.
The ramifications for key players like Apple and Samsung are considerable. Both brands are likely to encounter revised growth forecasts as the costs associated with tariffs are expected to be transferred to consumers, potentially suppressing demand. This occurs despite some alleviation of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case assessments.
The ambiguity surrounding US tariffs continues to cast a shadow over the market. While it remains uncertain if former President Trump will reinstate tariffs that were previously put on hold, the existing levels are already projected to have negative repercussions for Apple. If the tariff situation deteriorates, Counterpoint may further adjust its forecasts for the US market.
Counterpoint’s current assumptions rely on a reasonably stable tariff landscape through 2025, yet the growing tensions and uncertainty regarding trade policy could considerably affect pricing strategies, supply chain management, and ultimately, consumer demand.
As the iPhone 17 launch nears, speculation emerges over whether Apple will take on the increased costs or pass them on to consumers. Traditionally, Apple has managed to absorb some tariff-related expenses, but with estimates indicating a nearly billion-dollar impact this quarter alone, a price increase for the forthcoming model appears likely.
In summary, the smartphone market encounters a difficult environment as tariffs and economic uncertainties reshape growth predictions, especially in critical markets such as the US and China.
