On Sunday, the analyst group Citrini Research released an article about how agentic AI might lead to widespread economic disruption over the next two years. They envision a scenario set two years from now, where unemployment has doubled and the stock market has seen a decline of over one-third. The report states:
“AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved…
It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake…The system turned out to be one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth.”
This outlines a different type of bear case, focusing on the slow unraveling of the economy rather than a Skynet-style misalignment. Specifically, Citrini examines the effects of incorporating AI agents into the broader economy and the consequences when external contractors are replaced by more cost-effective in-house AI. This is akin to the “Death of SaaS” scenario but goes further by highlighting the vulnerabilities in business models that rely on optimizing inter-company transactions.
The report is generating significant discussion online, with some skepticism. Even Citrini suggests it’s more of a scenario than a firm prediction, but pinpointing where it errs is challenging.
Personally, I doubt companies will fully delegate purchasing decisions to AI agents, regardless of their sophistication. However, in Citrini’s view, many such decisions have already been outsourced to third-party contractors, making the scenario less improbable.