In late February, as Israel and the U.S. initiated an attack on Iran, leading to a regional conflict, users on the prediction market platform Polymarket began profiting from bets on the likelihood of a nuclear weapon being detonated. Polymarket had previously allowed bets on the possibility of a nuclear strike in 2026, but the ethical implications of such bets remain questionable.
Prediction markets allow people to wager on various topics, from the price of Pokémon cards to how often Elon Musk will post on social media, or who will win Best Picture at the Oscars. There are even bets on whether Jesus Christ will return by 2027.
Kalshi and Polymarket are currently the most popular prediction platforms in the U.S., valued at $11 billion and $9 billion respectively, and both are based in New York City. Though not a new concept, prediction markets gained traction around the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with billboards in Times Square displaying live betting odds.
Recently, Polymarket users have bet on the duration of U.S. government shutdowns and the likelihood of the U.S. striking Iran. Notably, a Polymarket user bet on the ousting of Venezuela’s former president, Nicolás Maduro, earning $400,000 shortly before it happened, raising concerns about insider trading.
Insider trading is illegal under U.S. federal law. Kalshi has banned such activity and has regulations to track and investigate individual users. However, Polymarket lacks these tracking measures and isn’t officially approved in the U.S. Despite this, it remains accessible via VPN, limiting its ability to trace betters.