Prediction market users have made and profited from significant bets regarding the U.S. and Israeli military bombing Iran. On Polymarket, contracts related to the timing of the attack saw $529 million in trades, as reported by Bloomberg. Analytics firm Bubblemaps SA revealed that six new accounts gained $1 million by accurately predicting a U.S. strike on Iran by February 28, hinting at possible insider trading.
While these bets may just reflect wider speculation on U.S. actions in Iran, Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman noted that the spread of information about war or conflict, along with Polymarket’s anonymity, could motivate informed individuals to act preemptively.
In January, analytics firm Polysights observed an increase in bets concerning the possibility that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer retain his position by the end of March.
Addressing concerns that such bets create a financial motive for assassination, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. In cases where potential outcomes involve death, we structure the rules to prevent profit from death.” He also mentioned that Kalshi would refund all fees from these bets.