Rick Ellis, an entertainment industry journalist, was approached for a deal with a major prediction market exchange.
Prediction markets aim to integrate with mainstream culture: The Golden Globes featured Polymarket odds, the AP licensed election data to Kalshi, and Polymarket partnered with Substack for more market data in newsletters.
Now, some exchanges are targeting individual reporters. Ellis, who operates a TV and streaming newsletter, said he received an offer to write two stories a week using prediction market data, like guessing “Survivor” winners. The payment was in the “mid to upper hundreds per post,” with bonuses for hitting metrics. Ellis did not disclose the exchange involved.
Ellis, with a long reporting history, isn’t against pitches for story ideas but rejected being paid for using prediction market data, calling it a line he wouldn’t cross.
Journalists frequently encounter coverage pitches, which may appear in stories, even in sponsored content. However, payment for specific mentions would violate many outlets’ ethics.
Kalshi declined to respond; Polymarket didn’t comment.
Prediction markets let people wager on various outcomes. Substack newsletters now include these odds with disclosures of partnerships with Polymarket. While markets like Polymarket present their data akin to polls, critics label it gambling, leading to lawsuits, including one against Kalshi for illegal gambling.
Prediction markets seek exposure, wanting betting on events like the Oscars to spur betting on more serious issues, such as geopolitical events. This industry also sees a PR contest between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Ellis viewed the offer as a potential financial boost, recognizing the entertainment field already grapples with financial influences and exists amid media sector turbulence. Nonetheless, he declined, valuing reader trust he’d developed.
For information on Polymarket or Kalshi, reach out to the reporter via email or Signal.
Prediction markets, allowing bets on future events, have drawn media attention and partnerships. Criticism centers on their gambling nature, with legal challenges like those faced by Kalshi. The markets aim for legitimacy and visibility, hoping enticing casual betting leads to engagement with weightier stakes.