### The Initial Military Deployment of an Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile: A Milestone in Contemporary Warfare
In a notable intensification of the persistent strife in Ukraine, Russia has employed an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in combat for the first time. This development signifies a pivotal event, as IRBMs had been previously limited by Cold War-era agreements. The missile, referred to as “Oreshnik,” was utilized in an assault on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, aiming at an industrial site associated with Soviet-era rocket production.
This incident highlights the increasing complexity and worldwide ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the changing nature of modern warfare.
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### **The Oreshnik Missile: An Emerging Weapon in Russia’s Arsenal**
The Oreshnik missile, which translates to “hazelnut tree” in Russian, is a variant of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). It is engineered to deliver several warheads, including nuclear ones, over intermediate distances of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers. As stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the missile can achieve speeds of up to Mach 10 (approximately 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second), making it challenging for current air defense systems to intercept.
The missile’s inaugural combat deployment targeted an industrial facility in Dnipro managed by PA Pivdenmash, previously known as Yuzhmash. This establishment holds historical importance, having produced booster stages for Soviet Zenit rockets and components for the U.S.-operated Antares rocket. Footage from the strike displays multiple projectiles hitting the ground at high velocity, indicating the possible use of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
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### **A Change in Nuclear Doctrine**
The introduction of the Oreshnik missile coincides with a substantial policy shift by Russia concerning its nuclear weapons strategy. Earlier this week, President Putin revealed a revision in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, decreasing the threshold for the utilization of nuclear arms. The updated policy permits nuclear responses to conventional offensives that jeopardize Russia’s territorial integrity.
This adjustment has generated apprehensions among Western nations, especially as the conflict in Ukraine increasingly incorporates advanced weaponry provided by NATO countries. For instance, Ukraine has recently deployed U.S.-supplied ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and U.K.-provided Storm Shadow missiles to target locations within Russian territory.
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### **The Demise of the INF Treaty and the Resurgence of IRBMs**
The deployment of the Oreshnik missile also underscores the ramifications of the dissolution of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Established in 1988 between the United States and the Soviet Union, the treaty prohibited ground-launched IRBMs and played a vital role in diminishing the threat of nuclear conflict during the Cold War. However, the U.S. exited the treaty in 2019, citing Russian infractions and the necessity to confront China’s expanding stockpile of IRBMs, as China was not a signatory.
With the treaty now void, the introduction of IRBMs like the Oreshnik heralds a new phase of strategic rivalry and raises concerns about the future of arms control agreements.
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### **Consequences for Global Security**
The deployment of the Oreshnik missile carries profound implications for global security:
1. **Heightened Tension in the Ukraine Conflict**: The strike on Dnipro indicates Russia’s readiness to utilize advanced and experimental weaponry, potentially exacerbating the conflict. Putin has also alluded to the likelihood of targeting Western nations providing military support to Ukraine.
2. **Challenges for Air Defense Systems**: Putin asserts that the Oreshnik missile is immune to existing air defense frameworks, including those created by the U.S. and NATO. While this assertion remains unverified, it emphasizes the urgency for improvements in missile defense technology.
3. **A Caution to the West**: Putin has portrayed the missile assault as a warning to Western powers, stressing that Russia will respond forcefully to any perceived threats. This rhetoric heightens the stakes for NATO and its allies, who must navigate the balance between supporting Ukraine and the potential for direct confrontation with Russia.
4. **The Possibility of a Broader Conflict**: In a foreboding statement, Putin characterized the war in Ukraine as “taking on global dimensions” and implied that Russia might target Western nations if provoked. This raises the alarm for a more extensive regional or even global conflict.
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### **Humanitarian and Strategic Implications**
The strike on Dnipro has contributed to the already overwhelming human cost of the conflict. According to the United Nations, nearly 12,000 civilians, including 622 children, have lost their lives since the large-scale invasion commenced in February 2022. Concurrently, U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that over a million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or injured in the conflict.
The war has also exerted pressure on global resources, with Russia reportedly experiencing 1,200 casualties per day and relying on
