**Failure of Russia’s Sarmat Missile Test: A Blow to Nuclear Aspirations**
Last week, Russia’s armed forces made an attempt to launch a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, situated around 500 miles (800 kilometers) north of Moscow. Nonetheless, satellite images taken over the weekend indicate the missile detonated either prior to or during launch, signaling a major setback for Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
This incident marks at least the second failure of an RS-28 Sarmat missile in under two years. The occurrence is particularly poignant, following days after the speaker of Russia’s legislature issued a thinly veiled warning to employ the missile against Europe if Western allies permitted Ukraine to utilize long-range weaponry against Russia.
### Satellite Imagery Illustrates Significant Damage
Commercial satellite images acquired from Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs displayed before-and-after scenarios of the missile silo at Plesetsk. The photographs disclose clear damage at the launch site, featuring a considerable crater centered on the entrance of the underground silo. George Barros, a Russia and geospatial intelligence analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, noted that the crater is around 200 feet (62 meters) wide, implying that the missile likely exploded shortly after ignition or during launch.
“Substantial damage in and around the launch pad can be observed, suggesting that the missile detonated shortly after ignition or launch,” Barros conveyed on X (formerly Twitter). He also pointed out that small blazes continued to rage in the surrounding forest, with four fire trucks spotted near the devastated silo.
### The Sarmat Missile: Russia’s “Ultimate Weapon”
The Sarmat missile, also referred to as RS-28 or “Satan II,” stands as Russia’s most extensive ICBM, towering at 115 feet (35 meters). It possesses the capability to deliver nuclear warheads to targets over 11,000 miles (18,000 kilometers) away, rendering it the longest-range missile available globally. The missile is engineered to transport up to 10 large warheads, 16 smaller ones, or a blend of warheads and countermeasures. It can also incorporate hypersonic boost-glide vehicles, enhancing its threat level within Russia’s nuclear stockpile.
The Sarmat is a three-stage missile that employs hypergolic propellants—hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide—developed by the Makeyev Design Bureau. It is meant to supplant Russia’s outdated R-36M missile, which surfaced during the Cold War.
### The Incident and Its Timing
Western experts remain unclear about the precise timing of the explosion. Russia had earlier issued advisories for pilots to steer clear of airspace along the missile’s intended flight route, a typical protocol before missile tests. However, these warnings were revoked two days before satellite images revealed the devastation at the launch location.
Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, proposed two potential scenarios. One theory is that the launch attempt transpired on September 19, with fires burning for over 24 hours. Alternatively, the test could have been aborted, and the explosion might have occurred during the defueling phase of the missile. “The nature of the destruction indicates that the missile detonated within the silo,” Podvig mentioned on his Russian Nuclear Forces blog.
James Acton, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also contributed, asserting that the satellite imagery compellingly suggests a significant explosion occurred.
### Russia’s Reticence and the Impact of Commercial Satellites
Russia has yet to formally confirm the failure. Nonetheless, the rise of commercial imaging satellites has increasingly made it challenging for governments to conceal such incidents. High-resolution satellite images from operators in the United States, Europe, and China have been instrumental in monitoring launch failures, engine test mishaps, and other military endeavors. In 2019, former U.S. President Donald Trump even shared an image from a classified U.S. spy satellite revealing damage at an Iranian launch facility.
This isn’t the first occurrence of failure for the Sarmat missile. U.S. officials reported that a Sarmat launch in February 2023 failed during its second stage burn. Although Russia had outlined further tests for 2023 and 2024, many of these were either canceled or failed, as indicated by airspace advisories.
The inaugural full-scale test flight of the Sarmat missile took place in April 2022, during which a mock warhead was successfully delivered from Plesetsk to an impact site 3,500 miles (5,700 kilometers) distant on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East. To date, this remains the sole successful long-range test of the missile.
### A Blow to Russia’s Military and Information Warfare
The most recent failure represents a significant embarrassment for Russia’s military, especially considering the Sarmat missile’s prominent status. Following the first successful test flight
