# NASA Tracks Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Possible City-Destroyer Risk
NASA has been actively observing **Asteroid 2024 YR4**, a near-Earth object (NEO) prompting worries among planetary defense specialists. First identified in **December 2024**, this asteroid has experienced a **notable rise in its impact probability**, which currently stands at **1 in 32**—representing one of the most hazardous asteroids noted to date.
## **Increasing Impact Risk: Is It Time to Worry?**
At the outset, NASA calculated the asteroid’s collision risk at **1 in 83**, indicating a relatively slim chance of impact. Nevertheless, as astronomers have collected additional data, the likelihood has progressively risen:
– **1 in 67**
– **1 in 43**
– **Current: 1 in 32 (3.1% chance of impact)**
The **European Space Agency (ESA)** has revised its figures as well, now estimating the impact probability at **2.81%**. Although this still signifies a **97% chance of avoidance**, the consistent increase in risk has sparked apprehension among scientists.
## **What is the Size of Asteroid 2024 YR4?**
Estimates indicate that **2024 YR4** is approximately **40 to 90 meters in diameter**. While it isn’t a **planet-annihilator**, it possesses sufficient size to create **considerable devastation** upon crashing into Earth.
### **Potential Aftermath of Impact**
Should **2024 YR4** strike Earth, it could release an explosion **500 times that of the Hiroshima bomb**. This scenario mirrors the **Tunguska event of 1908**, when an asteroid detonated above **Siberia**, obliterating **800 square miles of forest**.
The extent of the destruction would hinge on:
– **Impact Site**: A landfall could obliterate a city, while an ocean impact could incite tsunamis.
– **Material Makeup**: A **stony asteroid** might disintegrate in the atmosphere, whereas a **metallic asteroid** could land with full force.
## **Limited Time for Observations**
One major hurdle in evaluating **2024 YR4** is the **narrow observation period**. By **April 2025**, the asteroid is expected to slip **behind the Sun**, rendering it **untraceable** until **2028**.
This grants astronomers only a few months to:
– **Refine trajectory forecasts**
– **Identify the asteroid’s material properties**
– **Evaluate potential impact scenarios**
## **What Lies Ahead?**
Researchers are optimistic that cutting-edge telescopes, including the **James Webb Space Telescope**, can shed more light on the asteroid’s **makeup and framework**. Should the risk remain elevated, planetary defense organizations may investigate **mitigation strategies**, such as:
– **Deflection missions** (reminiscent of NASA’s **DART mission**)
– **Evacuation planning** for areas likely to be affected
For the time being, **NASA and ESA** persist in monitoring **2024 YR4**, with updates becoming increasingly vital in the upcoming months. While the risk is still low, the climbing impact probability serves as a **reminder of the significance of planetary defense initiatives**.
Stay tuned for further information as scientists strive to determine whether **2024 YR4** represents a genuine danger to Earth. 🚀🌍
