In recent weeks, we’ve encountered a continuous flow of reports indicating that Apple’s ultra-slim iPhone Air hasn’t precisely been a bestseller. Just last week, for instance, a report surfaced suggesting that Apple intended to reduce iPhone Air production by as much as 1 million units due to demand falling short of expectations. As a result, a narrative began to develop that Apple’s iPhone Air, despite the buzz we witnessed ahead of its launch, might be perceived as a letdown, reminiscent of Apple’s cherished but financially unsuccessful iPhone mini.
However, a more recent report contends that the iPhone Air may not be a failure at all. A fresh investor note from TD Cowen, highlighted by AppleInsider, communicates that Apple has not altered its iPhone Air production schedule. TD Cowen further notes that iPhone Air production for the 2025 holiday quarter remains steady at 7 million units.
It’s important to recognize that assessing the vigor of iPhone sales by examining production figures can often lead to misconceptions. For instance, Apple may occasionally reduce production because initial sales projections were overly ambitious, even when total sales are robust. In other cases, Apple could increase production when initial sales forecasts were too conservative. In both situations, Apple’s decisions frequently reflect the precision of its initial estimates rather than the actual vigor of overall sales. Hence, while production increases or reductions can be insightful, they usually do not provide a comprehensive view.
We might be experiencing an iPhone supercycle
Despite the mixed reception of the iPhone Air, one aspect that is becoming increasingly evident is that Apple’s iPhone 17 series is driving a noteworthy surge in iPhone sales. Analysts have long predicted an iPhone supercycle, and it seems we are finally witnessing it.
The demand for the iPhone 17 was overwhelming right from the outset. Not only were pre-orders higher than in previous years, but demand has remained strong in the weeks succeeding its global launch. One factor contributing to this demand is the belief among some analysts that there are over 315 million iPhone users who haven’t upgraded their devices in four or more years. This, combined with the notion that the iPhone 17 lineup arguably represents the most significant iPhone upgrade we’ve seen in years, has created an ideal scenario for Apple.
To that end, fresh data from Counterpoint Research shows that the iPhone 17, in its initial weeks of availability, surpassed early iPhone 16 sales by an impressive 14%. This is a significant surge considering that iPhone sales have not varied dramatically in recent years. Amid the noticeable rise in iPhone sales, Apple’s stock price has recently soared to new heights. On Monday, Apple’s shares reached $267, establishing a new intraday record. Since August 5, Apple’s stock has increased by 31%. We will gain a clearer understanding of how vigorous iPhone sales are when the company discloses its earnings report for the last quarter later this week.
