90% of Europe’s internet traffic goes through the Red Sea. A bold plan to lay a cable across the Arctic may offer a solution.
A significant portion of global data—emails, financial transactions, and internet traffic—travels via underwater fiber optic cables that convene at narrow choke points. While experts occasionally express concerns about the risks of this setup, these routes are historically the shortest and have performed reliably. Cables occasionally break, but traffic is rerouted until repairs are done. However, the ongoing conflict in Iran, following years of disruptions from Yemen, has encouraged authorities to explore alternative pathways, including one across the North Pole.
Issues began in 2024 when a Houthi missile hit a cargo ship in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen, dragging its anchor across submarine cables and causing significant damage. Repairing these cables involves specialized ships that need stable conditions, challenging in conflict zones, leading to months of negotiation before repairs commence. In recent incidents, more cables were severed, causing internet disruptions in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, prompting prolonged diplomatic efforts for repairs.
The cable disruptions have led to a search for alternative routes. Initially, the Strait of Hormuz seemed promising until conflict led to halts in cable projects, redirecting focus elsewhere. The Gulf states, aiming to diversify from oil to AI, are considering overland routes to Europe via Syria, Iraq, and Oman. Europe’s most ambitious proposal is in the Arctic.
An EU panel recommended constructing two Arctic cables to create a route to Asia without the Red Sea, through which 90% of Europe’s traffic currently flows. One proposed line will navigate through Canada’s Northwest Passage, while another plans a direct route across the North Pole from Scandinavia to Asia.
Plans for the Polar Connect route are advanced, involving Nordic academic networks, Sweden’s polar research agency, and telecom GlobalConnect Carrier, designated as a “Cable Project of European Interest” with 9 million euros allocated for preparatory work. An extensive route survey is anticipated this summer.
Pär Jansson, from GlobalConnect, highlighted the geopolitical tensions and technological advances driving the search for alternative cables, with the Arctic route poised to enhance Europe’s data resilience and autonomy. The white paper points out that Europe’s current routes through the Red Sea, Russia, or the US are less than ideal. The new cable would improve resilience, reduce latency, and provide better Arctic environmental monitoring.
Previous Arctic cable attempts failed due to installation and maintenance challenges posed by icebergs and harsh conditions. Quintillion’s attempt in 2016 saw repeated interruptions due to ice damage, necessitating repairs unattainable until seasonal thawing allowed.
High repair costs and extended downtimes render Arctic cables economically unviable, though governmental strategic priorities may shift financial perspectives. Jansson suggests that tech investments in Nordic data centers demand reliable connections, possibly requiring public investment. He estimates the Norway-Japan route may cost under 1 billion euros, with a goal for completion by 2030. This could be the simplest phase.